{"id":3310,"date":"2017-11-29T19:29:36","date_gmt":"2017-11-29T19:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schreders.ca\/?p=3310"},"modified":"2022-11-16T14:05:49","modified_gmt":"2022-11-16T19:05:49","slug":"bc-real-estate-association-housing-forecast-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.schreders.ca\/blog\/bc-real-estate-association-housing-forecast-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"BC Real Estate Association Housing Forecast for 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

BC Real Estate Association Housing Forecast for 2018<\/span><\/h1>\n

 <\/p>\n

You\u2019d be hard pressed to find someone who would say that 2017 was a stagnant year when it came down to housing sales and policy. With that being said, let\u2019s take a look at the forecast for 2018<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This information will focus on the Lower Mainland-Southwest region<\/strong> of the province which includes the Real Estate Board of Vancouver, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board. These areas account for approximately 60% of the housing demand in the province.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Related Story:<\/strong> Demand Strong in October for Langley and The Fraser Valley<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Population growth is being fueled by both international and interprovincial migration, with growth slowing in Metro Vancouver in recent months and increasing in Abbotsford<\/strong>, as housing affordability and availability impact housing decisions. In addition, with Alberta\u2019s increased economic performance, migrant flows from that province are expected to decrease. <\/p>\n

\"Schreder<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Housing demand continues to support a strong-performing economy<\/h2>\n

The province is now four years into above trend growth<\/strong>, benefiting from rising employment and consumer confidence. Employment growth has trended near 3% in 2017, with the unemployment rate declining close to 4%<\/strong>. Tighter labour markets have led to rising wages and consumer confidence. This has been reflected in double-digit growth in retail sales, and strong housing demand.<\/p>\n

\"Schreder<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A relatively low level of supply is keeping overall market conditions firmly in a seller\u2019s market<\/strong>. The supply of homes for sale continues to remain at near-decade lows. Total active residential listings are down 5% over the past 12 months in the Lower Mainland. However, market conditions vary by product type with the detached market exhibiting relative balance<\/strong>, while the attached and apartment markets are significantly undersupplied.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Schreder<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Housing starts in Vancouver were up 40% last year<\/h2>\n

Home builders have taken notice of the dwindling supply and have ramped up production. Housing starts in Vancouver were up 40% last year and continue at an elevated pace, resulting in approximately 40,000 units currently under construction, 55% above the 2008 peak of 27,000 units. However, there is a significant lag between housing start and completion so multi-family completions are expected to climb 50% over the next several quarters<\/strong>, providing much needed supply to the market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Schreder<\/a>\"Schreder<\/a><\/p>\n

Rapid price escalation<\/h2>\n

Housing supply will continue to be supported by employment and population growth in 2018, but a higher interest rate environment and tighter mortgage qualifications will reduce demand<\/strong>. The region recently experienced two waves of rapid price escalation: detached homes in 2016 and multi-family homes this year. It is unlikely that home prices can maintain this degree of upward momentum much longer. Look for more balanced market conditions in 2018<\/strong>, as a surge in new home completions increases supply and reduced affordability tempers demand. <\/p>\n

Overall, residential sales through the Real Estate Board of Vancouver, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board are expected to decline 8-11% in 2018, with average home prices increasing at a more modest 4-6%.<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you have questions about this forecast, the current market or the new mortgage rules, give us a call, we’d love to help!<\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

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